by Bill Bishop of The Register-Guard
Violent juvenile crime in Lane County jumped 10.1 percent last year over 1995, while property crimes by juveniles fell 2.4 percent, according to data released Tuesday by the Lane County Department of Youth Services.
The data, based on young offenders who were referred to the department, shows that 2,930 youths accounted for the 6,012 violent and property crimes reported in 1996–up from a total of 5,343 crimes reported in 1995.
The total number of juvenile crimes of all kinds in 1996 was 14.9 percent higher than the average number of juvenile crimes reported annually over the past five years, youth services Director Steve Carmichael said.
“It’s pretty clear, over time where we’re headed,” said Carmichael, who noted that the 1996 violent crime figure is slightly exaggerated because of a slight dip in violent crime in 1995.
A complete breakdown and analysis of the types of juvenile crimes and their cost for 1996 won’t be finished for several months. However, a cost analysis based on the 1995 figures showed that juvenile crime cost Lane County about $18.8 million.
The figure relies on national data about the cost of each type of crime–including property loss, lost time from work and medical expenses. National studies indicate that for each crime in which a juvenile is arrested, at least eight more similar crimes were committed.
Based on those assumptions, the 1995 loss to Lane County victims of juvenile crimes was $9.6 million, Carmichael said. An estimated $9.2 million in additional costs resulted from law enforcement, court and corrections activities for juvenile crimes, he said.
The cost analysis and trend data are part of an ongoing planning process within the county’s youth services department and other community corrections agencies that tries to find ways to reduce crime while also cutting budgets, Carmichael said.
For example, Carmichael said his department is working to find a way to identify the high-risk youth offenders who constitute 20 percent of the offender population but account for 80 percent of the offenses.
By focusing treatment and corrections resources on high-risk offenders, officials hope to reduce crime and control future costs in the adult corrections system, Carmichael said.
The critical obstacle to the plan is the lack of a good statistical tool to predict which new juvenile offenders are most likely to continue committing crimes after they’ve been caught for the first time, he said.
Of the county’s 32,834 youths, about 1,200 commit their first criminal offense each year. Of those, 80 percent stop their criminal behavior because of family intervention and personal factors. The other 20 percent commit and are charged with a new crime within a year.
“We know 80 percent won’t ever come back again, even if we don’t do anything. Right now, out of the 1,200 new kids who come in here every year, we don’t know who the 20 percent (at high risk to re-offend) are,” Carmichael said.
Working with the Oregon Social Learning Center, county youth services workers are running data trials to determine which factors, such as age at first offense and whether the offender is in school, serve as reliable predictors of future law-breaking.
Once the high-risk group is identified, its members will receive more services–such as family skill building, drug treatment, school behavior training, community service and intensive probation supervision.
“Not all the kids who come in here would get these things. But these are the things that research shows really work,” Carmichael said.
Unfortunately, Carmichael added, switching the focus to high-risk youth will require an influx of upfront money that currently has not been budgeted. Instead, he hopes to find grants or other funding to do a pilot project with 100 high-risk offenders for a two-year comparison with a control group of similar offenders who get no special services.
“In this environment of everybody cutting back, it’s a terrible time to start a new initiative,” Carmichael said.
Reprinted with permission. Copyright 1997, The Register-Guard, www.registerguard.com.